| 00:00:00 |
00:00:04 |
Good morning everybody
and welcome to the closing plenary. |
| 00:00:05 |
00:00:10 |
I think my job as moderator today
is to - |
| 00:00:11 |
00:00:17 |
with the help of four
fellow revolutionaries |
| 00:00:18 |
00:00:22 |
I hope on this podium,
blow any holes |
| 00:00:22 |
00:00:25 |
that might still be in the complacency
of Europe’s... |
| 00:00:25 |
00:00:29 |
and we really want to be
as challenging as possible |
| 00:00:29 |
00:00:33 |
about what in the light of the events
of the last few days here in Europe, |
| 00:00:34 |
00:00:37 |
what is working and what is isn’t and
what are the really tough challenges, |
| 00:00:39 |
00:00:42 |
Europe needs to face to get back to
growth. |
| 00:00:42 |
00:00:45 |
And in that sense I want to
see if we can start picking up |
| 00:00:46 |
00:00:50 |
some of the themes I’ve heard
uttered by many of you in the |
| 00:00:50 |
00:00:52 |
home sessions and corridors. |
| 00:00:52 |
00:00:57 |
Where you don’t buy the idea that
Europe will just weather this crisis. |
| 00:00:57 |
00:01:01 |
It was like a bad cold and business
will be back to how it was before. |
| 00:01:02 |
00:01:05 |
I think many of you have been
saying this was a pretty major |
| 00:01:06 |
00:01:09 |
thing and it’s brought long
term consequences |
| 00:01:09 |
00:01:14 |
and I want to try and get at
some of that in this closing plenary. |
| 00:01:14 |
00:01:18 |
We’ve got just the right people
to help us do it. |
| 00:01:19 |
00:01:23 |
From the left, if I can - or
from my right rather, your left, |
| 00:01:23 |
00:01:28 |
if I can introduce Bozidar Djelic,
the Deputy Prime Minister |
| 00:01:28 |
00:01:33 |
for European integration and Minister
of Science and Technological |
| 00:01:33 |
00:01:35 |
Development of Serbia and a young
global leader - |
| 00:01:35 |
00:01:37 |
Six more months. |
| 00:01:37 |
00:01:38 |
Six more months. |
| 00:01:38 |
00:01:41 |
For six more months, yes. |
| 00:01:41 |
00:01:43 |
So still a youth voice for six
more months. |
| 00:01:43 |
00:01:46 |
Let me explain I’ll move from
young global leader to middle- |
| 00:01:47 |
00:01:49 |
aged in one day so that’s okay. |
| 00:01:50 |
00:01:54 |
Valdis Dombrovskis, the
Prime Minister of Latvia; |
| 00:01:55 |
00:02:00 |
Dalia Grybauskaite, the President
of Lithuania, |
| 00:02:01 |
00:02:03 |
Vincent Van Quickenborne,
the Minister of Economy and |
| 00:02:03 |
00:02:04 |
Reform of Belgium. |
| 00:02:05 |
00:02:08 |
So we’ve got four leaders and
I'm going to, if I may, |
| 00:02:08 |
00:02:12 |
Madame President, start with you
and I'm going to throw a tough one |
| 00:02:12 |
00:02:15 |
at you which I'm going to repeat
to several others on the panel |
| 00:02:16 |
00:02:20 |
which was you’ve worked
very hard for Lithuania to |
| 00:02:21 |
00:02:23 |
get into Europe. |
| 00:02:24 |
00:02:27 |
Given the events of the last
few days where after all |
| 00:02:27 |
00:02:31 |
what was the prize you were seeking,
stability, growth, reform, |
| 00:02:32 |
00:02:35 |
those were supposed to be the
rewards of getting into Europe? |
| 00:02:36 |
00:02:38 |
Was the journey worth it? |
| 00:02:38 |
00:02:42 |
Looking today, did you get what
you expected? |
| 00:02:42 |
00:02:45 |
I think we got everything we
expected and more. |
| 00:02:45 |
00:02:51 |
In addition, of course the journey
was long, about 10 years, |
| 00:02:51 |
00:02:55 |
for us and in our region we did a
huge amount of reforms, |
| 00:02:56 |
00:03:01 |
democraticize our society, and
practically introduce market economy. |
| 00:03:02 |
00:03:05 |
But of course it was a fast,
very rapid, robust, |
| 00:03:06 |
00:03:09 |
and socially tense period.
It cost a lot. |
| 00:03:10 |
00:03:13 |
And we thought that after we
joined the European Union |
| 00:03:13 |
00:03:17 |
at least the hardest work
will be done but it looks that |
| 00:03:17 |
00:03:21 |
everyday new challenges are
falling on us and the road |
| 00:03:22 |
00:03:26 |
towards membership was worth
mainly because we were capable |
| 00:03:26 |
00:03:31 |
to reform ourselves as much
as we would like and as deeply |
| 00:03:31 |
00:03:33 |
as it was necessary. |
| 00:03:33 |
00:03:38 |
And this experience of
reforming fast, taking challenges, |
| 00:03:38 |
00:03:43 |
openness, and courage to talk
with people openly what is |
| 00:03:43 |
00:03:50 |
necessary to do, helping already
now than all of us in our region |
| 00:03:51 |
00:03:56 |
started to feel global problems
and failures already by |
| 00:03:56 |
00:03:58 |
the end of 2008. |
| 00:03:58 |
00:04:05 |
And having that in mind and
having this experience of |
| 00:04:06 |
00:04:12 |
managing ourselves, already in 2009
we took initiatives and adjusted |
| 00:04:13 |
00:04:17 |
our economy and reduced our
spending through all our economy |
| 00:04:18 |
00:04:23 |
including real salaries,
real pensions, real pays in |
| 00:04:23 |
00:04:28 |
social benefits by 4% of GDP in
one year. |
| 00:04:29 |
00:04:31 |
And of course our economy is
very small, of course we are a |
| 00:04:32 |
00:04:35 |
very open society and economy,
of course we depend very much |
| 00:04:35 |
00:04:40 |
on external markets but still
taking into account global pressures, |
| 00:04:41 |
00:04:44 |
national governments and national
politicians |
| 00:04:45 |
00:04:47 |
with their clear responsibility |
| 00:04:47 |
00:04:53 |
can still manage a lot inside the
country if decisions are at least |
| 00:04:53 |
00:04:56 |
reduced from a political populace. |
| 00:04:57 |
00:05:00 |
This is not easy, any government
pays the price. |
| 00:05:01 |
00:05:02 |
My neighbor paid for free government, |
| 00:05:03 |
00:05:06 |
I think, for that,
we’re still not paying |
| 00:05:06 |
00:05:10 |
for free governments but we’re
already losing and our government is |
| 00:05:10 |
00:05:15 |
losing credibility because of difficult
measures but necessary measures. |
| 00:05:15 |
00:05:19 |
So from outside we look as country
which is capable to manage, |
| 00:05:19 |
00:05:23 |
inside people are angry but
that probably is an objective reason |
| 00:05:24 |
00:05:26 |
how it is happening. |
| 00:05:27 |
00:05:31 |
Why I'm saying that the road
towards membership was perfect |
| 00:05:31 |
00:05:36 |
school which helped us to manage
today’s situation where |
| 00:05:36 |
00:05:41 |
we understood that we can rely
first on ourselves, only then |
| 00:05:41 |
00:05:44 |
second on the European Union
and that is an experience which |
| 00:05:45 |
00:05:46 |
is very useful still. |
| 00:05:47 |
00:05:51 |
Well that’s of course fascinating
but not the answer one might have |
| 00:05:51 |
00:05:54 |
expected a year or so ago because
basically you're arguing the journey |
| 00:05:55 |
00:05:58 |
to join Europe was what sort of
gave you the training |
| 00:05:58 |
00:06:02 |
and hardened you and gave you
the political capacity to take difficult |
| 00:06:02 |
00:06:07 |
and unpopular decisions but Europe
itself is not the prize that’s worth it, |
| 00:06:08 |
00:06:11 |
it was the journey that gave you
these strengths and capabilities. |
| 00:06:12 |
00:06:15 |
Yes and no, our journey was
important but also if to take |
| 00:06:15 |
00:06:19 |
the messages now that for example
during the huge downturn and fall, |
| 00:06:19 |
00:06:23 |
today annually the assistance from
the European funds, for example, |
| 00:06:24 |
00:06:30 |
practically amounts to 25% of annual
our budget, that’s significant assistance. |
| 00:06:30 |
00:06:33 |
Clearly you cannot deny it. |
| 00:06:33 |
00:06:34 |
Yeah. Thank you. |
| 00:06:34 |
00:06:38 |
Prime Minister, you have been -
and Latvia have been very, |
| 00:06:38 |
00:06:40 |
very anxious about joining the Euro. |
| 00:06:41 |
00:06:45 |
Does that look quite such a good
idea as it did a few months ago? |
| 00:06:45 |
00:06:51 |
Well certainly, our plans as regards
Euro has not changed, |
| 00:06:51 |
00:06:56 |
we still intend to meet most of the
criteria in 2012 which means that |
| 00:06:57 |
00:07:03 |
we could join Euro in January 1st, 2014
given that the current rules are held. |
| 00:07:03 |
00:07:07 |
So there are two worries as
regards Eurozone, |
| 00:07:08 |
00:07:12 |
the first part is the credibility
of the Eurozone itself where |
| 00:07:12 |
00:07:16 |
I think it’s a good news that
yesterday there was this rescue |
| 00:07:16 |
00:07:20 |
package for Greece and also proposed
to guarantee mechanisms |
| 00:07:20 |
00:07:25 |
to address the crisis in better manner. |
| 00:07:26 |
00:07:32 |
In another front, what is really needed
is control mechanisms within Eurozone |
| 00:07:32 |
00:07:36 |
to make sure that countries in Eurozone
have to follow most of the criteria. |
| 00:07:37 |
00:07:40 |
There was such a control mechanism,
sanctions mechanism in our stability |
| 00:07:40 |
00:07:43 |
and growth but it was scrapped
in 2003. |
| 00:07:44 |
00:07:49 |
Not apparently the time has come
to re-introduce this control mechanism. |
| 00:07:50 |
00:07:54 |
Second is what we hear and what
worries us somewhat is the debate |
| 00:07:55 |
00:07:59 |
that there should be some postponement
of the Eurozone enlargement |
| 00:07:59 |
00:08:03 |
or amending of the criteria so
that countries could not enter |
| 00:08:04 |
00:08:09 |
and I think it’s quite a misguided
debate because the problem of the |
| 00:08:10 |
00:08:14 |
Eurozone is not new countries
because there it’s quite clear, |
| 00:08:14 |
00:08:17 |
you either meet most of
the criteria or you are not allowed in. |
| 00:08:18 |
00:08:22 |
The problem is lack of control mechanisms
within Eurozone and the fact that |
| 00:08:22 |
00:08:26 |
most of the Eurozone countries do not
follow most of the criteria. |
| 00:08:26 |
00:08:32 |
So really we hope this debate
will not move into not allowing |
| 00:08:32 |
00:08:36 |
Eurozone enlargement and...
will come pretty soon with |
| 00:08:36 |
00:08:40 |
the case of Estonia it’s a matter
of coming weeks and months. |
| 00:08:42 |
00:08:51 |
I Both of you made this dramatic
adjustments to restore your public |
| 00:08:51 |
00:09:00 |
finances and yet you didn’t sort of stop the
Euro in the way that the Greece crisis has |
| 00:09:00 |
00:09:06 |
and yet you may be penalized because
you may not be allowed into the Euro. |
| 00:09:07 |
00:09:08 |
Do you feel it’s a double standard? |
| 00:09:09 |
00:09:12 |
Well this we will see pretty soon. |
| 00:09:12 |
00:09:18 |
And I think the real test is in Estonia
which had the 15% recession last year |
| 00:09:19 |
00:09:22 |
and yet 1.7% of GDP budget deficit. |
| 00:09:22 |
00:09:27 |
So they clearly met most of the criteria,
they're physically one of the most prudent |
| 00:09:28 |
00:09:31 |
countries and there we will see if
Eurozone is willing to stick |
| 00:09:32 |
00:09:37 |
to its own rules or it will invent new
rules not to allow Estonia in. |
| 00:09:38 |
00:09:42 |
And of course it will come of how
implications for Latvia and... |
| 00:09:42 |
00:09:49 |
also Lithuania in the sense that if
there is a credibility that Eurozone |
| 00:09:49 |
00:09:53 |
enlargement is an open process,
it’s also incentive and possibility |
| 00:09:54 |
00:09:57 |
for us to explain to the people that
measures we do are needed. |
| 00:09:58 |
00:10:00 |
We will join Eurozone in due time. |
| 00:10:00 |
00:10:05 |
Whereas if this will not be the case
then it will become also more difficult |
| 00:10:06 |
00:10:08 |
to explain why, for example, |
| 00:10:09 |
00:10:12 |
we need to make most
of the criteria in 2012. |
| 00:10:12 |
00:10:15 |
Why a budget deficit of 3% and not 3.5%? |
| 00:10:16 |
00:10:20 |
Djelic, you - I mean Serbia has really
this issue of accession |
| 00:10:21 |
00:10:25 |
and has been a driving dynamic of
your country’s politics |
| 00:10:25 |
00:10:29 |
for quite a few years now to meet
Europe’s demands if you like. |
| 00:10:31 |
00:10:35 |
Do you sort of look now and
wonder whether the price |
| 00:10:36 |
00:10:37 |
is going to be worth it? |
| 00:10:38 |
00:10:43 |
Well for sure the enlargement is
going to become more demanding, |
| 00:10:43 |
00:10:47 |
the criteria for countries to join
Europe and to join the Eurozone |
| 00:10:47 |
00:10:52 |
are going to be tougher but at the
same time that’s not necessarily |
| 00:10:52 |
00:10:55 |
a bad thing as long as there is a
win-win solution. |
| 00:10:56 |
00:11:01 |
Europe has still its soft power aspect
and definitely for the Western Balkans |
| 00:11:02 |
00:11:03 |
history never stops. |
| 00:11:04 |
00:11:07 |
Either we have the European agenda
or if we don’t, then you will probably |
| 00:11:07 |
00:11:09 |
have another agenda. |
| 00:11:09 |
00:11:12 |
So that’s why it’s always an important
thing to keep this European integration |
| 00:11:12 |
00:11:14 |
process going. |
| 00:11:14 |
00:11:18 |
I was last week in Berlin and I was
testifying in front of the Bundestag |
| 00:11:18 |
00:11:22 |
the day when the Greek package
was being voted. |
| 00:11:22 |
00:11:24 |
And of course in opening...
to the members of parliament |
| 00:11:25 |
00:11:28 |
"Ladies and gentlemen,
just what you wanted, |
| 00:11:28 |
00:11:31 |
another Balkan country.
Here we are." |
| 00:11:31 |
00:11:35 |
And yet - then I told them that we
froze wages and pensions |
| 00:11:35 |
00:11:39 |
in October of 2008, having done
a precautionary program with the |
| 00:11:40 |
00:11:46 |
IMF and the EU in 2007, that our total
debt to GDP is 32% of GDP, |
| 00:11:47 |
00:11:50 |
that we’re the only country upgraded
by the OACD last year, |
| 00:11:50 |
00:11:51 |
and that the capital... |
| 00:11:52 |
00:11:57 |
ratio of our banks, 80% of them Euro-
based of the mother banks, |
| 00:11:57 |
00:12:03 |
and that stress scenarios run by the IMK
and the ECB show no need for |
| 00:12:03 |
00:12:04 |
re-capitalization. |
| 00:12:04 |
00:12:06 |
But that’s also the truth and
therefore what we need |
| 00:12:07 |
00:12:09 |
is to keep this process going
because that’s something |
| 00:12:09 |
00:12:13 |
that has a very powerful and beneficial
effect on the domestic, I would say, |
| 00:12:14 |
00:12:17 |
political front, and at the same time
even though I do not expect |
| 00:12:17 |
00:12:22 |
the generosity to be at the level as
it used to be before, |
| 00:12:23 |
00:12:28 |
it used to be that when Spain or Portugal
would join they would get between 3% |
| 00:12:28 |
00:12:32 |
and 5% of GDP, not only budgets,
very significant transfers. |
| 00:12:32 |
00:12:37 |
It is not going to be as good a deal
as it was but it’s still a very good deal |
| 00:12:37 |
00:12:39 |
and the best deal on the table for our
countries as well. |
| 00:12:41 |
00:12:47 |
Minister, you listened to this and you
hear, I think, that economic liberalism, |
| 00:12:47 |
00:12:52 |
your credo, probably does even
better in the accession countries |
| 00:12:52 |
00:12:54 |
than it does in Belgium. |
| 00:12:54 |
00:12:59 |
You're hearing countries that
have joined, a country that wants to join, |
| 00:13:00 |
00:13:03 |
and the level of adjustment that
they have made, |
| 00:13:03 |
00:13:08 |
the rigor they’ve shown in their
public finances is one that old Europe |
| 00:13:09 |
00:13:10 |
would find enviable. |
| 00:13:11 |
00:13:14 |
Do you think you can learn a lesson
and will we see now in the agreement |
| 00:13:14 |
00:13:19 |
of the last few days similar levels
of adjustment here? |
| 00:13:21 |
00:13:24 |
Well it’s like "Here I am old Europe,
there they are new Europe." |
| 00:13:26 |
00:13:30 |
Let me say I think that what those
three countries and other countries |
| 00:13:31 |
00:13:35 |
have achieved is remarkable and
at the same time I think that the |
| 00:13:36 |
00:13:41 |
comfort of the Euro, having the Euro,
has postponed a lot of stricter reforms |
| 00:13:42 |
00:13:46 |
in all Eurozone countries including
our country. |
| 00:13:46 |
00:13:51 |
And what we’ve seen last weekend,
the response, the massive response |
| 00:13:51 |
00:13:56 |
of European institutions I hope is a
wake-up call that prevented us from |
| 00:13:57 |
00:14:02 |
the real downfall but I think after
the euphoria of the markets yesterday, |
| 00:14:02 |
00:14:07 |
what you see in the public mood is
sobriety that means that most people |
| 00:14:07 |
00:14:12 |
today realize that the battle to
come is an uphill battle |
| 00:14:12 |
00:14:16 |
that means that especially in Belgium
but also other countries. |
| 00:14:16 |
00:14:20 |
We have elections in a few weeks,
Holland has elections to come, |
| 00:14:21 |
00:14:22 |
UK just had elections. |
| 00:14:22 |
00:14:27 |
As for the next few years those
politicians continuing to promise |
| 00:14:27 |
00:14:34 |
the moon in this continent will
not be longer credible. |
| 00:14:34 |
00:14:38 |
So the message is that there
will be probably a decade of |
| 00:14:38 |
00:14:43 |
austerity that is necessary but
let’s put it in a positive way. |
| 00:14:43 |
00:14:48 |
I think 2010 could become a
new start for Europe because |
| 00:14:48 |
00:14:53 |
either we go for the future of a
footnote continent comparing |
| 00:14:53 |
00:14:56 |
to the United States where you
have economic growth |
| 00:14:56 |
00:15:00 |
predicted above 3%,
not speaking about China, India, |
| 00:15:00 |
00:15:05 |
and other countries,
or you go to a real world player |
| 00:15:06 |
00:15:09 |
with real economic growth,
and that is Europe, |
| 00:15:10 |
00:15:12 |
and that means more growth
than we have today. |
| 00:15:12 |
00:15:16 |
Predictions are 1%, 1.5%
that is not enough to pay |
| 00:15:17 |
00:15:21 |
for the welfare that old Europe,
so-called old Europe, has today. |
| 00:15:21 |
00:15:23 |
So what you need is I think two things. |
| 00:15:24 |
00:15:29 |
First of all I think you need more
European ambition. |
| 00:15:29 |
00:15:34 |
There is huge benefits awaiting,
500 million customers, high income, |
| 00:15:35 |
00:15:37 |
middle income customers. |
| 00:15:37 |
00:15:39 |
The single market is not yet there. |
| 00:15:39 |
00:15:42 |
There's a lot of protectionism,
national chance protected |
| 00:15:43 |
00:15:47 |
by member states especially in the old
Europe that prevents us from regrowth. |
| 00:15:47 |
00:15:54 |
And secondly what you need are brave,
honest politicians on the national level |
| 00:15:54 |
00:15:58 |
that say to the people "Hey there,
if you want to protect that welfare, |
| 00:15:58 |
00:16:01 |
we should work longer and we
should work harder," |
| 00:16:02 |
00:16:03 |
including the politicians, of course. |
| 00:16:04 |
00:16:08 |
And this is the only way because it is
either reform or it is decline, |
| 00:16:09 |
00:16:10 |
that is the reality. |
| 00:16:11 |
00:16:11 |
Thank you. |
| 00:16:12 |
00:16:14 |
Look let me - it’s a very good point,
if I may, |
| 00:16:14 |
00:16:16 |
and I'm going to come right back to
you but I want to do so |
| 00:16:17 |
00:16:23 |
by reminding us that formally the session,
the question part of this session |
| 00:16:24 |
00:16:29 |
was the issue of Europe 2020,
the new document that is to replace |
| 00:16:30 |
00:16:31 |
the Lisbon Agenda. |
| 00:16:31 |
00:16:36 |
And it sets five goals although I
think it’s still got to complete its |
| 00:16:36 |
00:16:39 |
winding path through the different
approval processes. |
| 00:16:40 |
00:16:44 |
Those goals are increasing the
employment rate to 75% in Europe, |
| 00:16:44 |
00:16:48 |
boosting spending on research and
development 3% of GDP, |
| 00:16:48 |
00:16:53 |
attaining the sort of 20-20-20
climate energy targets, |
| 00:16:54 |
00:16:59 |
lifting 20 million people out of poverty,
cutting the school drop-out rate to 10% |
| 00:16:59 |
00:17:01 |
from the current 15%. |
| 00:17:02 |
00:17:07 |
And I think probably to everybody
on this panel and the audience, |
| 00:17:07 |
00:17:10 |
there's a sort of sleepwalking
quality to this. |
| 00:17:10 |
00:17:15 |
It doesn’t seem related to the
sheer scale of challenge that |
| 00:17:15 |
00:17:17 |
Europe now faces. |
| 00:17:17 |
00:17:20 |
It certainly begs the question that
if the Lisbon agenda didn’t work, |
| 00:17:21 |
00:17:25 |
why would these goals adopted
10 years later work. |
| 00:17:26 |
00:17:28 |
But more fundamentally,
it seems to dock the issue |
| 00:17:29 |
00:17:32 |
that surely we’re not at the
point of setting incremental |
| 00:17:32 |
00:17:33 |
goals for Europe. |
| 00:17:34 |
00:17:36 |
We’re at a point,
as you just hinted Minister, |
| 00:17:36 |
00:17:39 |
of saying "Look, we’re living
under completely different fiscal |
| 00:17:40 |
00:17:42 |
ceilings for the next 10 years. |
| 00:17:42 |
00:17:47 |
We’re living in a much more
intense global competitive environment |
| 00:17:47 |
00:17:50 |
where Europe is in danger of
being at the losing end." |
| 00:17:51 |
00:17:56 |
What is the fiscal framework which
is going to allow us forward? |
| 00:17:56 |
00:18:00 |
And how does it relate to what
has received a lot of attention over |
| 00:18:01 |
00:18:06 |
the last day here which is obviously
the core for many of us of Europe’s |
| 00:18:06 |
00:18:11 |
comparative advantage if you like,
is the sort of social market model. |
| 00:18:12 |
00:18:14 |
But what I don’t think we’ve
answered yet and maybe |
| 00:18:15 |
00:18:20 |
we can in this final session,
is that model affordable anymore |
| 00:18:20 |
00:18:25 |
given the fiscal ceiling we have and
what does it really mean anyway, |
| 00:18:25 |
00:18:30 |
because across the countries
represented at this platform today, |
| 00:18:30 |
00:18:34 |
there are very different levels of
social spending and social provision. |
| 00:18:34 |
00:18:38 |
So what is it that we’re defending?
Is it affordable? |
| 00:18:38 |
00:18:44 |
And is it realistic in terms of
the decade of difficulty we have ahead? |
| 00:18:45 |
00:18:48 |
Minister let me start with you
and we’ll then just go down this way. |
| 00:18:49 |
00:18:52 |
Well I think that EU 2020, I don’t
want to get very institutional about it, |
| 00:18:52 |
00:18:56 |
it’s less targets, it’s better monitor,
it’s not that bad, |
| 00:18:56 |
00:19:00 |
but what I miss really is an ambition
for more entrepreneurship |
| 00:19:00 |
00:19:03 |
because if you talk about growth
and you want to have more growth, |
| 00:19:03 |
00:19:06 |
what you need are more entrepreneurs
and more lean way |
| 00:19:06 |
00:19:09 |
for those entrepreneurs to create
the growth and that is really lacking |
| 00:19:10 |
00:19:11 |
in the document, sorry to say so. |
| 00:19:11 |
00:19:13 |
Look at the United States
for example, |
| 00:19:13 |
00:19:17 |
if you look at the export power
of the United States more than 50%, |
| 00:19:17 |
00:19:22 |
and that is for the first time in 2010,
for the first time the United States |
| 00:19:22 |
00:19:25 |
export more to emerging markets
than to what I would call |
| 00:19:25 |
00:19:27 |
“developed markets.” |
| 00:19:27 |
00:19:29 |
But for example Belgium,
with all due respect for my country, |
| 00:19:30 |
00:19:35 |
we only export 3% to China and 75%
goes to the EU 15 classical states |
| 00:19:36 |
00:19:39 |
so if you want to have more
entrepreneurship, |
| 00:19:39 |
00:19:41 |
you’ll need less bureaucracy,
more lean way |
| 00:19:41 |
00:19:44 |
for the entrepreneurs to become
European players and |
| 00:19:44 |
00:19:47 |
that means the single market and
so lesser protectionism. |
| 00:19:47 |
00:19:51 |
And secondly, you need more
ambition towards real exportation |
| 00:19:51 |
00:19:57 |
and that is the core of the issue
and that I think is the only way to |
| 00:19:58 |
00:20:01 |
continue to survive what
we call the "social market model.: |
| 00:20:01 |
00:20:03 |
We talk too much about social,
sorry to say so, |
| 00:20:04 |
00:20:06 |
but we talk too less about market. |
| 00:20:07 |
00:20:07 |
Madame President. |
| 00:20:08 |
00:20:12 |
Okay, 2020, your - in the
introduction said that this |
| 00:20:12 |
00:20:14 |
document replacing Lisbon. |
| 00:20:15 |
00:20:18 |
My question "Do we need to
replace Lisbon at all?" |
| 00:20:19 |
00:20:21 |
Nothing worse at all. |
| 00:20:21 |
00:20:26 |
Do we need to replace that?
Then in 2020 we have four-five targets, |
| 00:20:26 |
00:20:29 |
are they sufficient
and good enough |
| 00:20:30 |
00:20:33 |
reacting to
the challenges we’re facing? |
| 00:20:33 |
00:20:37 |
Is this the receipt as prescription
in apotheca that if we fulfill |
| 00:20:37 |
00:20:41 |
these four targets, we are safe
and prosper? |
| 00:20:42 |
00:20:44 |
No. Nobody guarantees anything. |
| 00:20:45 |
00:20:48 |
Especially nobody can say that
one size fits all. |
| 00:20:49 |
00:20:51 |
Of course we will have so-called
national programs |
| 00:20:51 |
00:20:55 |
but on the basis made on these as
directions/targets |
| 00:20:55 |
00:20:57 |
but in today’s problematic,
I think it’s a very, |
| 00:20:58 |
00:21:00 |
very narrow segment what
we’re talking about. |
| 00:21:01 |
00:21:05 |
We’re really still facing the
global challenges |
| 00:21:05 |
00:21:09 |
in global economic downturn in
financial sector, |
| 00:21:09 |
00:21:13 |
that means for our future
financial stability, |
| 00:21:14 |
00:21:19 |
still the risk exists and we have
national regulations, |
| 00:21:19 |
00:21:24 |
not even European ones,
so we have virtual economic crisis |
| 00:21:24 |
00:21:29 |
and bubble and we have national
or maximum tri-regionalized |
| 00:21:29 |
00:21:32 |
or tri- to half-European level
regulations. |
| 00:21:32 |
00:21:38 |
So in total, then we’re discussing 2020,
already after last week’s events, |
| 00:21:38 |
00:21:41 |
it became too narrow for discussion. |
| 00:21:41 |
00:21:47 |
But anyway if going to this narrow
item I will say that still unclear |
| 00:21:47 |
00:21:53 |
clear ownership, still unclear the -
how it will be delivered, |
| 00:21:53 |
00:21:55 |
and the sanctions if it will
not be delivered, |
| 00:21:56 |
00:22:01 |
that means all we are really
replacing not very successful Lisbon |
| 00:22:02 |
00:22:04 |
or we try to have something
more successful. |
| 00:22:05 |
00:22:09 |
That’s only time, processes, and
flexibility of the document |
| 00:22:10 |
00:22:13 |
and process can help because if
we stick to the document |
| 00:22:13 |
00:22:16 |
and we will not change it and
we will try to fulfill |
| 00:22:16 |
00:22:21 |
routinely bureaucratically what
we are today having on the table, |
| 00:22:22 |
00:22:27 |
it will be a huge mistake because
it is projected for the 10 years ahead, |
| 00:22:28 |
00:22:31 |
we everyday see change in wealth, |
| 00:22:31 |
00:22:35 |
everyday seeing different
understanding and different future |
| 00:22:36 |
00:22:39 |
of our fiscal stability in most of
our countries |
| 00:22:39 |
00:22:44 |
and what we can afford during the
next 10 years having in mind |
| 00:22:44 |
00:22:46 |
our fiscal situation. |
| 00:22:46 |
00:22:48 |
And then we’re talking about
some kind of social models |
| 00:22:49 |
00:22:50 |
we try to accommodate. |
| 00:22:51 |
00:22:56 |
We do have already in Europe
different understanding of it, |
| 00:22:57 |
00:23:02 |
different quality of it,
and different capabilities to form. |
| 00:23:03 |
00:23:07 |
In our countries in new member
states still our payments |
| 00:23:07 |
00:23:10 |
and social benefits are
comparatively lower |
| 00:23:10 |
00:23:14 |
while for us probably it’s easier
mentally to adapt |
| 00:23:15 |
00:23:20 |
for new difficult measures,
we probably were supposed to introduce, |
| 00:23:20 |
00:23:24 |
but of course - then we talk about
some kind of coordinated attitude |
| 00:23:25 |
00:23:28 |
towards social model on the
European level. |
| 00:23:28 |
00:23:29 |
We’re far away from it. |
| 00:23:29 |
00:23:32 |
It’s too diverse when the...
thinks differently |
| 00:23:33 |
00:23:37 |
especially in some regions as
our regions who went quite fast |
| 00:23:37 |
00:23:41 |
into market liberalization and
everything including in social relations, |
| 00:23:41 |
00:23:43 |
including the labor market. |
| 00:23:43 |
00:23:51 |
Why to think that 2020 will help
equally good and well all 27, |
| 00:23:51 |
00:23:53 |
that’s quite an illusion. |
| 00:23:54 |
00:23:59 |
Why probably to have as
open process which can absorb |
| 00:23:59 |
00:24:05 |
additional measures in the future,
additional terms of end priorities in |
| 00:24:05 |
00:24:09 |
the future during these 10 years will
be made a better and new approach, |
| 00:24:09 |
00:24:11 |
not to suggest to what we have
on the table today |
| 00:24:12 |
00:24:16 |
because I'm not sure that it is what
is on the table today is the answer... |
| 00:24:16 |
00:24:19 |
Thank you. Prime Minister. |
| 00:24:20 |
00:24:25 |
Well I would say as best we can
do now to protect |
| 00:24:25 |
00:24:30 |
what we call European social model
is to focus this EU 2020 strategy |
| 00:24:31 |
00:24:34 |
as much as we can on growth and jobs. |
| 00:24:34 |
00:24:38 |
This early, it seems to be a priority
if we will ensure growth, |
| 00:24:38 |
00:24:43 |
we will be better able to ensure
EU social model. |
| 00:24:44 |
00:24:47 |
So what can be done in this sense? |
| 00:24:47 |
00:24:50 |
Of course we need to address the
bottlenecks which exist |
| 00:24:50 |
00:24:55 |
in order to improve our growth. |
| 00:24:55 |
00:24:59 |
First, it’s a business environment,
something is being talked very little. |
| 00:25:00 |
00:25:04 |
Also in respect to EU 2020 strategies,
there should be actually much more |
| 00:25:04 |
00:25:07 |
into it about improving of
business environment, |
| 00:25:07 |
00:25:13 |
cutting red tape, removing existing
barriers in the EU internal market, |
| 00:25:13 |
00:25:20 |
SME support and enabling or...
enabling small business tax, |
| 00:25:20 |
00:25:23 |
labor market reforms,
all that kind of issues |
| 00:25:23 |
00:25:29 |
which can boost the EU
growth potential. |
| 00:25:29 |
00:25:34 |
If we talk on new member states,
there's also another important aspect |
| 00:25:34 |
00:25:38 |
that best way we can go to the
social cohesion, |
| 00:25:39 |
00:25:45 |
there is rules of economic cohesion
so really it’s a role of EU cohesion |
| 00:25:45 |
00:25:52 |
policy which should be more
interlinked into EU 2020 strategy. |
| 00:25:52 |
00:25:55 |
So I think if we all focus on growth,
if we all focus on improving |
| 00:25:56 |
00:25:59 |
business environment,
we will also be able |
| 00:25:59 |
00:26:03 |
to better address our social
problems in the aging society. |
| 00:26:04 |
00:26:10 |
Well on the face of it, the document
is better than what Lisbon was. |
| 00:26:10 |
00:26:13 |
Less targets, more comprehensive,
I would say, |
| 00:26:13 |
00:26:17 |
at the same time but I guess the
issue is can we get there. |
| 00:26:17 |
00:26:20 |
It will be desirable to get there
with differences, national differences. |
| 00:26:20 |
00:26:23 |
The issue is do we have the
conditions to succeed. |
| 00:26:24 |
00:26:26 |
So first of all at the national level, |
| 00:26:26 |
00:26:29 |
granted we do have differences for sure, |
| 00:26:29 |
00:26:33 |
this being said, one common thing
we have heard over the last two days |
| 00:26:33 |
00:26:36 |
and I guess that’s the theme for
several years and several political cycles, |
| 00:26:36 |
00:26:41 |
is that there is a tyranny of one generation,
this is the baby boomers |
| 00:26:41 |
00:26:47 |
who are exhibiting an egoism of
historical proportions, |
| 00:26:47 |
00:26:53 |
having lived through the 30 great years
of development and now, |
| 00:26:53 |
00:26:56 |
because they have the swing vote
in almost every country, |
| 00:26:56 |
00:26:59 |
hanging on to their entitlements and
to their future pensions |
| 00:26:59 |
00:27:04 |
at almost all costs and de facto blocking
a lot of governments |
| 00:27:05 |
00:27:06 |
in implementing reform. |
| 00:27:07 |
00:27:10 |
And if you think that new
Europe is younger than old Europe, |
| 00:27:10 |
00:27:11 |
you're wrong. |
| 00:27:11 |
00:27:17 |
We are older than old Europe
and in that sense those problems |
| 00:27:17 |
00:27:20 |
are actually even more acute in
some of those countries |
| 00:27:20 |
00:27:23 |
which are supposed to catch up,
which of course makes the job |
| 00:27:23 |
00:27:24 |
even more difficult. |
| 00:27:24 |
00:27:28 |
Then on the level of Europe,
again in Berlin, |
| 00:27:28 |
00:27:31 |
interestingly Germans seems to
me have become specialists |
| 00:27:31 |
00:27:33 |
of the Greek retirement system. |
| 00:27:34 |
00:27:36 |
They analyze and they compare
in large circulation papers |
| 00:27:37 |
00:27:39 |
when they go,
what is the early retirement, |
| 00:27:40 |
00:27:41 |
what do the policemen can get,
and so forth, |
| 00:27:42 |
00:27:44 |
and in that sense it took 10 years
to discover that |
| 00:27:44 |
00:27:46 |
a true common market requires a
common currency |
| 00:27:47 |
00:27:50 |
and it would appear that this crisis
in 10 more years show that it’s |
| 00:27:51 |
00:27:53 |
going to be very difficult to have
a common currency |
| 00:27:53 |
00:27:57 |
without tightly coordinating fiscal
and even social policies |
| 00:27:57 |
00:28:00 |
in some point of time and
maybe that’s politically not very... |
| 00:28:00 |
00:28:04 |
but at the end of the day the
payers would want |
| 00:28:05 |
00:28:08 |
to make sure that the receivers do
not have any easier goal. |
| 00:28:09 |
00:28:12 |
It should be more logically that
the people who need to catch up |
| 00:28:13 |
00:28:16 |
should work even harder, not less,
than those who have achieved |
| 00:28:17 |
00:28:18 |
something before. |
| 00:28:18 |
00:28:25 |
And then I guess the third point is to,
in this 2020, is to talk about science, |
| 00:28:26 |
00:28:27 |
technology, innovation, entrepreneurship. |
| 00:28:28 |
00:28:32 |
I guess what we will see that’s
more than a hypothesis, |
| 00:28:33 |
00:28:36 |
we see it in telecom equipment,
we will see it in a lot of the internet..., |
| 00:28:36 |
00:28:40 |
we will see it in aerospace and I'm
sure we will see it more |
| 00:28:41 |
00:28:42 |
and more in infrastructure. |
| 00:28:43 |
00:28:44 |
In November last year,
for the first time, |
| 00:28:45 |
00:28:49 |
Chinese companies won an EU-
financed highway project in Poland. |
| 00:28:50 |
00:28:53 |
Currently in Belgrade we are
building a bridge over the Danube |
| 00:28:53 |
00:28:55 |
with Chinese money. |
| 00:28:55 |
00:28:58 |
And I guess we will see more
and more, |
| 00:28:58 |
00:29:01 |
not only the United States doubling
their expenditures and then trying |
| 00:29:02 |
00:29:05 |
to attract even more of the European
brains as they have been doing |
| 00:29:06 |
00:29:09 |
successfully over the past few decades,
but also new competitors |
| 00:29:09 |
00:29:14 |
and a call for all of us to really
focus on this issue so as to be able |
| 00:29:14 |
00:29:17 |
to have something to export. |
| 00:29:17 |
00:29:20 |
And in that sense I think we need
something like a new airbus, |
| 00:29:21 |
00:29:24 |
something that can fire up the
imagination of the people, |
| 00:29:24 |
00:29:28 |
something concrete, maybe a green
electrical car where Europe can lead |
| 00:29:28 |
00:29:32 |
and where only Europe can address
the American and the Chinese |
| 00:29:33 |
00:29:35 |
and maybe the Indian competition. |
| 00:29:35 |
00:29:37 |
And in that sense,
and that’s my last point, |
| 00:29:37 |
00:29:40 |
there's also a need for Europe a bit
more to flex its muscle... |
| 00:29:41 |
00:29:46 |
times the ideology in the open market,
of course are the more desirable things |
| 00:29:47 |
00:29:50 |
and yet we do not face the same
amount or openness |
| 00:29:50 |
00:29:53 |
and fair game in other geographies
in our markets. |
| 00:29:54 |
00:29:55 |
We’ve seen it in Copenhagen. |
| 00:29:56 |
00:29:59 |
Europe was leading but was
unable to have the leverage |
| 00:30:00 |
00:30:03 |
to get to a world agreement and t
he same story would |
| 00:30:03 |
00:30:07 |
need to have us think quite
hard of how to leverage |
| 00:30:07 |
00:30:09 |
the fight and to have the
biggest market in the world |
| 00:30:09 |
00:30:12 |
in order to effect and to make
us successful in the long run. |
| 00:30:13 |
00:30:14 |
Okay, well there you have it,
the 2020 document probably okay |
| 00:30:14 |
00:30:23 |
but hardly up to the scale of the
challenges that Europe faces. |
| 00:30:24 |
00:30:29 |
Let’s now open it to the floor
and say - throw in questions, |
| 00:30:30 |
00:30:33 |
points as wildly as you like
because I think this is for all of us |
| 00:30:33 |
00:30:37 |
a chance to sum up what the last
day and a half has meant |
| 00:30:37 |
00:30:40 |
in terms of messages for where
this region is going. |
| 00:30:42 |
00:30:43 |
In the back, right. |
| 00:30:48 |
00:30:50 |
My name is Yosh Martins from
Consumers International. |
| 00:30:52 |
00:30:55 |
There's a lot of talk about the need
for growth |
| 00:30:55 |
00:31:01 |
but there's no talk about sustainability
and it is like in this need for growth |
| 00:31:01 |
00:31:04 |
we can not afford sustainability
as if it were a luxury. |
| 00:31:05 |
00:31:10 |
So I think we should re-take,
regain the previous discussion |
| 00:31:10 |
00:31:13 |
about sustainable growth and
private debts for Europe |
| 00:31:14 |
00:31:17 |
should look for its advantage
because sustainable growth, |
| 00:31:17 |
00:31:20 |
sustainable consumption is what
we need for this world. |
| 00:31:21 |
00:31:23 |
Thank you.
There was one up the front - yes. |
| 00:31:29 |
00:31:35 |
...with the European Commission.
It’s more of a personal anecdote really. |
| 00:31:35 |
00:31:39 |
I'm married to an Indian and
we have an Indian friend here, |
| 00:31:39 |
00:31:42 |
an executive from a multinational
company. |
| 00:31:42 |
00:31:46 |
He worked here in Brussels for a
year and was very fond of the soup |
| 00:31:46 |
00:31:48 |
that they served in the canteen
at his office. |
| 00:31:49 |
00:31:53 |
But he found one day in July that
there was no more soup |
| 00:31:54 |
00:31:57 |
and so he inquired about it and
apparently the person who was |
| 00:31:57 |
00:32:00 |
dealing with the soup was on
holiday for a couple of months |
| 00:32:01 |
00:32:05 |
and so was the whole supply of the soup,
the person who sold the ingredients |
| 00:32:06 |
00:32:07 |
and the van that transported the soup. |
| 00:32:08 |
00:32:11 |
Anyway, he was very surprised about
the fact that he couldn’t eat soup for a |
| 00:32:12 |
00:32:15 |
couple of months and I think he
really used it as a sort of point |
| 00:32:15 |
00:32:21 |
to say how surprised he was
that at the bottom line |
| 00:32:21 |
00:32:25 |
there's a lot of Europeans who
really don’t want to work that much, |
| 00:32:25 |
00:32:29 |
the main motivation factor for a
lot of Europeans |
| 00:32:29 |
00:32:32 |
because we’re a rich society
in a way I guess, |
| 00:32:32 |
00:32:34 |
is to go on holiday and to retire early. |
| 00:32:35 |
00:32:38 |
How do we reconciliate this with the
sort of challenges |
| 00:32:38 |
00:32:40 |
that we have been discussing? |
| 00:32:41 |
00:32:43 |
Great. Yes over here. |
| 00:32:48 |
00:32:51 |
Kirsty Hughes, Oxfam.
Two comments. |
| 00:32:51 |
00:32:56 |
One not really fully with my Oxfam
hat on. |
| 00:32:56 |
00:32:59 |
We’re very good at beating ourselves up
in Europe, very good, |
| 00:32:59 |
00:33:03 |
I mean 25 years ago I was doing my
PhD on European competitiveness. |
| 00:33:03 |
00:33:07 |
In the early ‘80s I look back at
folks from the 1960s |
| 00:33:07 |
00:33:08 |
about the American challenge. |
| 00:33:09 |
00:33:12 |
There's always somebody challenging
or somebody we’re not better. |
| 00:33:12 |
00:33:15 |
Actually if you noticed, we’re still here,
we’re still a huge trade block. |
| 00:33:16 |
00:33:19 |
You’ve got Germany as leading -
one of the two top leading exporting |
| 00:33:19 |
00:33:21 |
countries in the world. |
| 00:33:21 |
00:33:24 |
If we want to become a low-carbon
Europe by 2050 as we absolutely must, |
| 00:33:24 |
00:33:27 |
we’re perfectly capable of doing that. |
| 00:33:27 |
00:33:30 |
So where’s the kind of confidence,
not only about the competitiveness |
| 00:33:31 |
00:33:33 |
but also about our welfare state
that may need reforming. |
| 00:33:34 |
00:33:36 |
Maybe the baby boomers have got
it wrong but what about |
| 00:33:36 |
00:33:39 |
"Well we can't be as rich as we thought
we were going to be but we’re going to be |
| 00:33:40 |
00:33:42 |
more equal societies,
we’re going to be better societies, |
| 00:33:43 |
00:33:44 |
we’re going to think about wellbeing. |
| 00:33:45 |
00:33:47 |
Where’s some of that positive vision? |
| 00:33:47 |
00:33:50 |
And putting my Oxfam hat back on,
if we don’t have that sort of |
| 00:33:51 |
00:33:54 |
positive vision, how are we going
to look out towards the world |
| 00:33:54 |
00:33:57 |
and take our responsibility for the
world more seriously, |
| 00:33:57 |
00:34:00 |
whether it’s our responsibility
because we caused that climate change, |
| 00:34:00 |
00:34:02 |
I mean it was pathetic. |
| 00:34:02 |
00:34:05 |
We weren’t just sidelined by Copenhagen,
we chose to be sidelined, |
| 00:34:06 |
00:34:09 |
we didn’t use our negotiating skills and
our supposed leverage. |
| 00:34:09 |
00:34:11 |
What about the impact of the global
economic crisis |
| 00:34:12 |
00:34:13 |
on the poorest countries in the world? |
| 00:34:14 |
00:34:16 |
So very clearly didn’t cause it and... |
| 00:34:16 |
00:34:20 |
pushing 50 to 100 million more people
into poverty. |
| 00:34:20 |
00:34:22 |
Where’s our responsibility towards them? |
| 00:34:23 |
00:34:25 |
Well yes we were the biggest development
spender in the world, good, |
| 00:34:26 |
00:34:28 |
so let’s keep that and think how we’re
going to use it. |
| 00:34:29 |
00:34:32 |
So I don’t think we’re going to get
out of this current economic crisis |
| 00:34:33 |
00:34:36 |
with these 2020 documents and
everything else if we don’t have a much, |
| 00:34:36 |
00:34:41 |
much more compelling political narrative
and that’s got to come from the public |
| 00:34:41 |
00:34:43 |
and from civil society but it’s also got
to come from our leaders, too. Thank you. |
| 00:34:45 |
00:34:47 |
Great. Jeffrey. |
| 00:34:50 |
00:34:54 |
Jeff Littman from the UN World
Tourism Organization. |
| 00:34:54 |
00:34:57 |
Listening just to the debate and
first the Minister saying |
| 00:34:57 |
00:35:03 |
we have to have a new ideal and
then the following who talked about |
| 00:35:03 |
00:35:10 |
let’s bring sustainability back into
the equation and then listening to Kirsty |
| 00:35:10 |
00:35:15 |
in that positive way talking also about
the need for higher value, |
| 00:35:15 |
00:35:20 |
perhaps social inclusion, maybe the thing
that we’re looking for which |
| 00:35:20 |
00:35:26 |
has now become the sort of strategic
drive of the G20 in the UN system |
| 00:35:26 |
00:35:28 |
is the green economy. |
| 00:35:28 |
00:35:33 |
And maybe Europe should actually
set itself up to become |
| 00:35:33 |
00:35:36 |
the champions of the green economy
which at the moment it looks very much |
| 00:35:36 |
00:35:38 |
as though China is setting itself up to
do. |
| 00:35:39 |
00:35:40 |
Great. |
| 00:35:40 |
00:35:42 |
I'm going to catch a call on somebody
from the floor, |
| 00:35:43 |
00:35:47 |
Timothy Garton Ash, and ask him as
a longtime writer |
| 00:35:47 |
00:35:50 |
about European affairs as he listens to
this discussion. |
| 00:35:51 |
00:35:56 |
Are we right to be sort of rather
pessimistic and feeling burdened |
| 00:35:56 |
00:36:01 |
by the challenges of Europe or
should we actually shrug it off |
| 00:36:01 |
00:36:04 |
and argue that Europe’s always like this? |
| 00:36:05 |
00:36:08 |
Because it is certainly the case that
coming to a European forum |
| 00:36:08 |
00:36:12 |
of the World Economic Forum after
having been in other regions |
| 00:36:12 |
00:36:15 |
immediately before it,
whatever their problems, |
| 00:36:16 |
00:36:18 |
there was an energy,
a euphoria, |
| 00:36:19 |
00:36:23 |
these problems we can overcome,
we’ll be back to high growth, |
| 00:36:24 |
00:36:31 |
why is Europe so depressed?
Can we have a microphone? |
| 00:36:40 |
00:36:42 |
Well thank you Mark. |
| 00:36:43 |
00:36:49 |
Kirsty is certainly right to say
that one could fill a whole book |
| 00:36:50 |
00:36:58 |
with obituaries of the European
project and crises and episodes |
| 00:36:59 |
00:37:02 |
of Euro fatalism and Euro pessimism. |
| 00:37:02 |
00:37:09 |
I have to say I think this one is
very serious in historical terms |
| 00:37:09 |
00:37:13 |
because I do not think we have
the great drivers |
| 00:37:13 |
00:37:18 |
of the European project that
we had for most of the post-war period |
| 00:37:18 |
00:37:22 |
and because the global challenges
we face and particularly the emerging |
| 00:37:22 |
00:37:25 |
great powers are huge competition. |
| 00:37:26 |
00:37:30 |
For me the conclusion from this
conference is what a couple |
| 00:37:30 |
00:37:34 |
of our speakers have already said
that we cannot continue |
| 00:37:34 |
00:37:38 |
in the old rhetoric of simply saying
we must defend |
| 00:37:39 |
00:37:43 |
our European social model and
just have a little bit more growth |
| 00:37:43 |
00:37:45 |
and work a bit harder and a bit better. |
| 00:37:46 |
00:37:49 |
That is totally inadequate for the
challenge we face. |
| 00:37:50 |
00:37:55 |
We have to set about a totally
redesigned European social model, |
| 00:37:56 |
00:37:58 |
the European social market economy, |
| 00:37:58 |
00:38:01 |
and then we will have a chance at
what we need from our leaders |
| 00:38:02 |
00:38:05 |
is not that rather emollient
reassuring rhetoric |
| 00:38:05 |
00:38:11 |
we get from our leaders but the
language of blood, sweat, and tears. |
| 00:38:12 |
00:38:12 |
Thank you. |
| 00:38:13 |
00:38:16 |
Charles Grant here,
another long term observer of Europe. |
| 00:38:18 |
00:38:26 |
Well I totally share all the gloom
applying say the next five years |
| 00:38:26 |
00:38:29 |
but I can only be more optimistic if I
think more about the long term |
| 00:38:30 |
00:38:33 |
because I think in the long term
we can be more optimistic. |
| 00:38:34 |
00:38:38 |
I think the Euro crisis will do more
for economic reform in southern Europe |
| 00:38:38 |
00:38:41 |
than the Lisbon Agenda or EU 2020
will ever do. |
| 00:38:42 |
00:38:46 |
It is going to be brutal and nasty.
It will force through hard, harsh reforms. |
| 00:38:47 |
00:38:50 |
And I think 10 years from now,
we’ll be seeing the dividends of that |
| 00:38:51 |
00:38:54 |
and 10 years from now either we
have a dynamic, lean, |
| 00:38:55 |
00:38:57 |
mean southern European economy or the
Eurozone will have broken up. |
| 00:38:58 |
00:39:00 |
And I think I take the optimistic
view there. |
| 00:39:01 |
00:39:05 |
Secondly the whole set of issues
around energy will I think create |
| 00:39:05 |
00:39:09 |
a dynamic for integration in Europe
because we are building a single market, |
| 00:39:09 |
00:39:13 |
however imperfectly and slowly,
we do care about our energy security, |
| 00:39:13 |
00:39:17 |
we are going to learn to speak with one
voice in our external energy relations |
| 00:39:17 |
00:39:20 |
because harsh self-interest will
push us to do that. |
| 00:39:20 |
00:39:21 |
We have no alternative. |
| 00:39:22 |
00:39:26 |
That will drive forward integration. |
| 00:39:26 |
00:39:29 |
Finally, it’s the sheer strategic
element that you mentioned Mark. |
| 00:39:30 |
00:39:32 |
I think that a lot of Europeans
maybe want to live in a big... |
| 00:39:32 |
00:39:36 |
that doesn’t worry about problems
in other parts of the world |
| 00:39:36 |
00:39:38 |
and doesn’t want to think about
security challenges. |
| 00:39:38 |
00:39:41 |
But actually, a lot of Europeans,
when they see a G2 emerging, |
| 00:39:41 |
00:39:44 |
when they see that on all the
important decisions, |
| 00:39:44 |
00:39:48 |
the US and China are the voices
that count on financial regulation |
| 00:39:49 |
00:39:52 |
or climate change or immigration
issues or counter-terrorism, |
| 00:39:53 |
00:39:55 |
then I think a lot of Europeans will
wake up and say |
| 00:39:56 |
00:39:59 |
“Hang on, we don’t want the US and
China to dominate the 21st century |
| 00:40:00 |
00:40:01 |
and we need a voice too” |
| 00:40:02 |
00:40:04 |
and then that will help the kind
of political integration Europe |
| 00:40:04 |
00:40:06 |
that many of us would like to see. |
| 00:40:06 |
00:40:08 |
So I think at the very long run we
can be more optimistic |
| 00:40:09 |
00:40:13 |
but it’s going to be five years of
ghastly crisis and introversion |
| 00:40:14 |
00:40:19 |
and blaming each other and a lack
of solidarity and people not trusting |
| 00:40:19 |
00:40:23 |
each other before we come through
towards those that are sunny slopes |
| 00:40:24 |
00:40:25 |
10 years ahead. |
| 00:40:26 |
00:40:28 |
Anyone else want to comment on
the prognosis before we come |
| 00:40:28 |
00:40:32 |
back to the panel? Okay. |
| 00:40:32 |
00:40:41 |
I mean I think we sort of heard the
different range of views very well put |
| 00:40:41 |
00:40:45 |
from the floor here but you would-
probably what unites the optimists |
| 00:40:46 |
00:40:50 |
and the pessimists is actually
either whichever camp you're in, |
| 00:40:50 |
00:40:52 |
there's got to be fundamental reform. |
| 00:40:54 |
00:40:57 |
The division is more about
"Is that achievable or not?" |
| 00:40:57 |
00:41:00 |
I don’t really hear anybody
thinking that Europe can |
| 00:41:00 |
00:41:04 |
kind of bump along as it is
and we’ve heard from the audience |
| 00:41:04 |
00:41:08 |
the reference to the massive sort of
baby boomer problem |
| 00:41:08 |
00:41:11 |
where the people who were the
engine of the growth, |
| 00:41:12 |
00:41:15 |
the ones who like to have those
holidays and anything else |
| 00:41:15 |
00:41:20 |
that has become their aspiration
or focus are now finding themselves |
| 00:41:21 |
00:41:27 |
joining the ranks of the retired with a
huge cost, caring cost, |
| 00:41:28 |
00:41:30 |
to the European economy. |
| 00:41:30 |
00:41:35 |
So these are difficult times and
I think we’re all talking about |
| 00:41:35 |
00:41:40 |
the need to have a real ambition
about fiscal limits |
| 00:41:41 |
00:41:47 |
and re-engineering the social model
to reflect those fiscal limits. |
| 00:41:47 |
00:41:50 |
But if we may, let’s go once more,
we’ll start at the other end this time, |
| 00:41:51 |
00:41:55 |
but once more through our panel to
have some closing observations on this. |
| 00:41:56 |
00:41:57 |
[00:42] |
| 00:41:57 |
00:41:59 |
I guess does one need to be a pessimist? |
| 00:42:00 |
00:42:04 |
Well one cannot afford to be a
pessimist and at all levels, |
| 00:42:04 |
00:42:07 |
I mean, be it in the government
or NGO or other sectors, |
| 00:42:08 |
00:42:12 |
one needs to really look this reality
in the face and it’s really |
| 00:42:12 |
00:42:16 |
a more challenging one that it used
to be because there's a couple of |
| 00:42:16 |
00:42:20 |
billion other humans who are
now producing more and more |
| 00:42:20 |
00:42:22 |
the type of stuff we used to produce |
| 00:42:22 |
00:42:26 |
and mind you, at this point in time,
they are able to produce it cheaper |
| 00:42:26 |
00:42:31 |
and maybe even at a better quality
and it’s not anymore shoes, |
| 00:42:32 |
00:42:38 |
textile, and toys, it is getting to be
more the airbuses and things that |
| 00:42:38 |
00:42:43 |
Ericsson produces so the threat to the
markets caps and the profitability |
| 00:42:43 |
00:42:46 |
of what are today the stabilizers of
some of the rich societies. |
| 00:42:47 |
00:42:50 |
But this being said,
a crisis focuses everybody’s minds, |
| 00:42:55 |
00:42:57 |
there is now a clear view of how
Europe should function |
| 00:42:58 |
00:43:02 |
at this level of integration,
some at times unpalatable conclusions |
| 00:43:02 |
00:43:05 |
have to be drawn and although we
are not at the table yet |
| 00:43:05 |
00:43:09 |
but we’re trying to influence every
bit and to give our contribution |
| 00:43:10 |
00:43:13 |
that in the October council,
we will see some movements |
| 00:43:14 |
00:43:16 |
after the establishment of this
European Monetary Fund |
| 00:43:17 |
00:43:20 |
a possibility for a European ranking
agency that will not have |
| 00:43:21 |
00:43:24 |
the pretty ugly conflict of interest
issue that the current competitors have, |
| 00:43:25 |
00:43:31 |
the possibility then to be more assertive
and with more leverage on the top |
| 00:43:31 |
00:43:35 |
16 or 17, if in Cancun an agreement
cannot be reached, |
| 00:43:35 |
00:43:40 |
and then also a more specific in our
also national level, |
| 00:43:41 |
00:43:44 |
2020 targets being implemented to
get on with those projects. |
| 00:43:45 |
00:43:49 |
And I guess the focus on all of this,
if you look deep down |
| 00:43:49 |
00:43:53 |
with the public opinions,
yes there are those who will be |
| 00:43:53 |
00:43:58 |
making a lot of noise, nobody can say
that we will not see more terrible things |
| 00:43:58 |
00:44:01 |
happening because indeed in some
quarters the situation is really difficult |
| 00:44:02 |
00:44:04 |
but at the same time I believe
that there is a lot of realization |
| 00:44:04 |
00:44:07 |
within the public opinions that this
time it’s really serious |
| 00:44:08 |
00:44:11 |
and that everybody has to do more
than just a bit more work |
| 00:44:12 |
00:44:14 |
and a bit more contribution. |
| 00:44:14 |
00:44:16 |
So I think yeah, it’s going to be
tough the next two or three years |
| 00:44:17 |
00:44:18 |
but I think we’re going to get there. |
| 00:44:19 |
00:44:20 |
Prime Minister. |
| 00:44:21 |
00:44:25 |
Well coming from the EU member
state which competes very closely |
| 00:44:26 |
00:44:30 |
with Sweden being number one
or number two which produces |
| 00:44:31 |
00:44:34 |
a fair share of energy from
renewable sources, |
| 00:44:34 |
00:44:37 |
more than one-third of our
energies comes from renewable, |
| 00:44:38 |
00:44:42 |
and also producing least CO2
emissions per capita in EU... |
| 00:44:42 |
00:44:48 |
I will probably just add a couple of
points on this sustainable development. |
| 00:44:48 |
00:44:54 |
Well certainly 20-20-20 targets are part
of the EU 2020 strategy |
| 00:44:56 |
00:45:01 |
so targets are set and in fact also
during the crisis and with the |
| 00:45:01 |
00:45:04 |
fiscal limitations we have,
there are many things we can do |
| 00:45:05 |
00:45:12 |
to meet those targets and to move
more towards sustainable development. |
| 00:45:12 |
00:45:16 |
And one example you do not always
need high tech or anything like this, |
| 00:45:17 |
00:45:20 |
one example is energy efficiency. |
| 00:45:21 |
00:45:24 |
Take for example now expanded
quite substantially is |
| 00:45:25 |
00:45:30 |
housing energy efficiency program to
improve heat insulation of housing |
| 00:45:30 |
00:45:35 |
and if you look at the biggest
polluter in Europe, |
| 00:45:35 |
00:45:39 |
it’s not industry or not transportation. |
| 00:45:39 |
00:45:40 |
It is the housing sector, |
| 00:45:41 |
00:45:44 |
energy associated with heating or
cooling buildings. |
| 00:45:45 |
00:45:49 |
Then there are also many things
which you can do: |
| 00:45:49 |
00:45:51 |
first stimulating economy in short run; |
| 00:45:51 |
00:45:55 |
second reducing your emergency
dependency from imported energy; |
| 00:45:55 |
00:45:58 |
third reducing your emissions. |
| 00:45:59 |
00:46:04 |
So there are really many things
you can do without green ideas |
| 00:46:04 |
00:46:10 |
with the result 2020 strategy being
too fiscally expensive. |
| 00:46:11 |
00:46:15 |
In fact you can save money if you
target proper areas. |
| 00:46:16 |
00:46:19 |
So there are many things we can
do for sustainable development |
| 00:46:20 |
00:46:24 |
and I think we will do them. |
| 00:46:24 |
00:46:27 |
Then of course there is the
philosophical question |
| 00:46:27 |
00:46:31 |
of what happened in Copenhagen
with our 20-20-20 proposals. |
| 00:46:31 |
00:46:35 |
We know nobody else is no
where close to that level |
| 00:46:36 |
00:46:41 |
of proposals but probably we also
should listen what the |
| 00:46:42 |
00:46:44 |
European world was saying. |
| 00:46:44 |
00:46:49 |
I think it was more clearly pronounced
by India which were really clear. |
| 00:46:49 |
00:46:53 |
“Okay, you in the west agree to
whatever per capita emission |
| 00:46:54 |
00:46:59 |
targets you want and we in India
will go below those targets.” |
| 00:47:00 |
00:47:03 |
So first off we’ll be talking if there
is a sort of a human right |
| 00:47:04 |
00:47:08 |
to pollute then it should be equal
to all humans and that’s something |
| 00:47:08 |
00:47:12 |
we in the west should keep in mind
when we are negotiating |
| 00:47:12 |
00:47:19 |
emission reduction targets now in Bonn
and in Mexico and in Cancun next time. |
| 00:47:21 |
00:47:22 |
Madame. |
| 00:47:23 |
00:47:25 |
Going a little bit to a more
macroeconomic picture between |
| 00:47:26 |
00:47:29 |
the economic centers of the
world and seeing and trying |
| 00:47:30 |
00:47:31 |
to see the Europe inside of it. |
| 00:47:32 |
00:47:36 |
I think that already Europe is
shaking a lot from... |
| 00:47:36 |
00:47:42 |
pressures but still we try not to
wake up and not to smell reality. |
| 00:47:42 |
00:47:46 |
Reality is running after us in one
country or in another as we have now, |
| 00:47:47 |
00:47:50 |
for example, in south Europe,
but still we’re trying to do |
| 00:47:51 |
00:47:54 |
mainly window dressing and this
I mean by including that |
| 00:47:55 |
00:48:00 |
in the 2020 and by the politically
correct language, for example, |
| 00:48:00 |
00:48:04 |
to save, to defend whatever we had. |
| 00:48:05 |
00:48:07 |
Do we need to say what we had? |
| 00:48:07 |
00:48:12 |
Maybe let’s think about what we
need to have and to defend openness |
| 00:48:13 |
00:48:18 |
and the capability to change in
Europe otherwise the more we |
| 00:48:18 |
00:48:21 |
will defend what we have,
the less we will be able |
| 00:48:21 |
00:48:24 |
to defend what we have or had. |
| 00:48:24 |
00:48:28 |
So for this point of view,
for us smaller nations, open nations, |
| 00:48:28 |
00:48:30 |
dynamic nations, it’s easy. |
| 00:48:30 |
00:48:33 |
As I said, we have been challenged,
we have been beaten by situation, |
| 00:48:34 |
00:48:38 |
by competition, by difficulties and
we are ready to take on ourselves |
| 00:48:38 |
00:48:42 |
more but still for Europe,
in general, |
| 00:48:43 |
00:48:46 |
then we’re trying to cook and
prepare a lot of political papers |
| 00:48:47 |
00:48:50 |
which are not workable,
which are not helping. |
| 00:48:50 |
00:48:54 |
It’s really avoidance of seeing
reality eye to eye. |
| 00:48:55 |
00:49:00 |
And here we need to understand
that Europe cannot live alone, |
| 00:49:01 |
00:49:05 |
cannot survive in this globalized
situation alone while all measures |
| 00:49:06 |
00:49:10 |
and creation their regional European
institutions is not enough |
| 00:49:11 |
00:49:15 |
including European funds,
regulatory bodies, |
| 00:49:16 |
00:49:19 |
it’s not enough if these bodies
will work separately from |
| 00:49:19 |
00:49:22 |
international accepted bodies and
not reform the bodies, |
| 00:49:23 |
00:49:25 |
including creating agencies, IMF,
World Bank, |
| 00:49:25 |
00:49:29 |
and other financial institutions
which still work in old manner, |
| 00:49:29 |
00:49:32 |
non-reformed, and we do not
have different instruments. |
| 00:49:32 |
00:49:35 |
And if, for example,
all accounting rules, |
| 00:49:35 |
00:49:39 |
understanding of banking in Europe
is different from what is going on, |
| 00:49:39 |
00:49:42 |
for example, in New York,
what we’re talking about, |
| 00:49:42 |
00:49:45 |
the situation and challenges are
globalized, |
| 00:49:46 |
00:49:49 |
their approach will still have national,
even only national, |
| 00:49:50 |
00:49:56 |
not yet European, why Europe if will
not be able to concentrate, to coordinate, |
| 00:49:57 |
00:50:02 |
to agree together, what we need to do
for us will be very difficult to compete. |
| 00:50:02 |
00:50:08 |
While here I want to say that it’s
not about pessimism, opposite, |
| 00:50:09 |
00:50:13 |
the first to formulate reality than to
know how to go about it, |
| 00:50:13 |
00:50:17 |
that means positive,
that means optimism |
| 00:50:17 |
00:50:21 |
but we’ve absolutely opened
realistic understanding of |
| 00:50:22 |
00:50:23 |
what is indeed going on and in
the world. |
| 00:50:23 |
00:50:28 |
So why for me we in our country
try to be critical not only |
| 00:50:28 |
00:50:31 |
about ourselves but also what
we can do, |
| 00:50:31 |
00:50:36 |
how we discuss the projects in Europe,
why we are so enough positively |
| 00:50:36 |
00:50:38 |
critical towards 2020. |
| 00:50:38 |
00:50:43 |
We don’t want this document
or this project or this idea to fail |
| 00:50:43 |
00:50:49 |
before it works and to fail as it
was with other strategies as Lisbon, |
| 00:50:49 |
00:50:50 |
for example. |
| 00:50:50 |
00:50:57 |
Why in the council together,
most of us, we are uncomfortably, |
| 00:50:57 |
00:51:00 |
for some countries questioning a
lot of questions and giving |
| 00:51:00 |
00:51:06 |
a lot of problems but we would
like any strategy workable, effective, |
| 00:51:06 |
00:51:07 |
and resultative. |
| 00:51:08 |
00:51:13 |
Why all feeling around the room
and around the conference |
| 00:51:13 |
00:51:17 |
is not only about just one other paper,
one other idea, |
| 00:51:18 |
00:51:23 |
it’s about how long after the crisis
started really we started to feel |
| 00:51:23 |
00:51:27 |
in 2007 already, we’re still
talking about necessity, |
| 00:51:27 |
00:51:32 |
of coordinate, about necessity
to manage joint problems together |
| 00:51:33 |
00:51:36 |
and still working separately,
Europe included. |
| 00:51:37 |
00:51:41 |
So I don’t know long the world
will be only talking, |
| 00:51:42 |
00:51:47 |
probably after another broke or
problem or some kind of difficulty, |
| 00:51:47 |
00:51:52 |
large difficulty, Europe including,
not only Europe but Eurozone, |
| 00:51:52 |
00:51:57 |
is now on the edge of facing another
trouble and how fast it will react |
| 00:51:57 |
00:52:02 |
as it did on Sunday not only
politically but really how fast |
| 00:52:03 |
00:52:06 |
the measures will be introduced
and agreements will be reached |
| 00:52:07 |
00:52:12 |
really not just by political correct
language that will result Eurozone |
| 00:52:13 |
00:52:14 |
will manage or not. |
| 00:52:14 |
00:52:19 |
And here we had already,
and it is very right, a lot of countries, |
| 00:52:19 |
00:52:24 |
16 now, do have one currency but
do not have at all one fiscal policy. |
| 00:52:25 |
00:52:30 |
We do have Central Bank but we do
not have really single monetary policy. |
| 00:52:31 |
00:52:34 |
Is it possible at all? |
| 00:52:34 |
00:52:38 |
You can ask any academic economist
and probably he will argue |
| 00:52:38 |
00:52:41 |
“No, practically it’s very difficult.” |
| 00:52:41 |
00:52:44 |
That means the stability pact was
created to at least to try to coordinate |
| 00:52:46 |
00:52:46 |
fiscal policies. |
| 00:52:47 |
00:52:50 |
What we did with it exactly
before the crisis in 2005? |
| 00:52:50 |
00:52:56 |
We just laundered it out, loosened it,
and it’s not helpful at all |
| 00:52:56 |
00:52:57 |
in this environment. |
| 00:52:57 |
00:53:02 |
So if our economic policies will go
together with economic cycle |
| 00:53:02 |
00:53:08 |
and our election cycles, of course will
be very difficult for all of us |
| 00:53:08 |
00:53:11 |
to agree because every year,
in each country or in Europe, |
| 00:53:11 |
00:53:16 |
we have elections after elections and
if we forget that economics |
| 00:53:17 |
00:53:21 |
have their own cycle,
not necessarily depending on |
| 00:53:21 |
00:53:26 |
political cycle,
we will be failing again. |
| 00:53:26 |
00:53:32 |
So why I just want to finalize
saying that we need to |
| 00:53:32 |
00:53:35 |
clearly agree what kind of Europe
we want, |
| 00:53:36 |
00:53:41 |
how deep integration we want,
and in what areas we want to agree, |
| 00:53:42 |
00:53:47 |
otherwise we will be only
discussion larger, with enlargement, |
| 00:53:48 |
00:53:52 |
looser with enlargement,
less decisive with enlargement, |
| 00:53:53 |
00:53:55 |
and not resultative with enlargement. |
| 00:53:55 |
00:53:59 |
So if we will understand these
problems in the future hopefully |
| 00:54:00 |
00:54:02 |
we will be able to avoid them. |
| 00:54:03 |
00:54:05 |
Thanks very much Madame President.
Minister, last word. |
| 00:54:05 |
00:54:10 |
Yes when I listen to my three
colleagues it reminds me |
| 00:54:10 |
00:54:13 |
of the saying that the European Union
is very good at telling member states, |
| 00:54:14 |
00:54:16 |
candidate member states,
what they should do |
| 00:54:16 |
00:54:20 |
but is less well in reforming itself
so maybe that could be a lesson for us. |
| 00:54:21 |
00:54:24 |
Secondly, I'm not pessimistic, not at all. |
| 00:54:24 |
00:54:28 |
If Greek socialists can reform,
everybody can, yes we can. |
| 00:54:29 |
00:54:34 |
But the point that the gentleman
there made is quite clear. |
| 00:54:34 |
00:54:38 |
He said “Okay, the Euro crisis
was a wakeup call, |
| 00:54:38 |
00:54:42 |
the question is how do we
stay awake? |
| 00:54:42 |
00:54:43 |
How do we stay awake?” |
| 00:54:44 |
00:54:47 |
And then I think the only answer is,
of course, ambition, targets, etc. |
| 00:54:48 |
00:54:53 |
You need an instance, an institution
that is willing to look at it. |
| 00:54:53 |
00:54:57 |
And I believe, I'm a Belgian,
sorry to say so, that Europe there, |
| 00:54:57 |
00:55:01 |
European Commission and European
institutions have unique opportunity, |
| 00:55:01 |
00:55:03 |
that is, to show their teeth. |
| 00:55:04 |
00:55:07 |
And that means that respecting
the Growth and Stability Pact, |
| 00:55:07 |
00:55:13 |
respecting the targets EU 2020 are
enlarged towards growth, respecting, |
| 00:55:13 |
00:55:16 |
real respecting, that is,
this is really the core essence |
| 00:55:17 |
00:55:21 |
because the issue, I mean,
there are huge member states |
| 00:55:21 |
00:55:26 |
of so-called old Europe that never
respected the Growth and Stability Pact |
| 00:55:28 |
00:55:30 |
if there is no respect for targets. |
| 00:55:30 |
00:55:34 |
How do you want that once
we can have a very good continent? |
| 00:55:35 |
00:55:36 |
I listened to all the questions. |
| 00:55:37 |
00:55:43 |
I won't respond to them but I
think really the lady of Oxfam and others, |
| 00:55:43 |
00:55:48 |
I'm a free market liberal and I'm very
proud of the social system that we have |
| 00:55:49 |
00:55:52 |
but the big question today is if we
want to continue to have |
| 00:55:53 |
00:55:58 |
a social model then it’s ununderstandable
that today, in my country, |
| 00:55:58 |
00:56:04 |
when a company like Opal, GM,
and Antrop closes |
| 00:56:04 |
00:56:09 |
that people at the age of 52 can say
"I go on a pre-pension scheme." |
| 00:56:10 |
00:56:13 |
This is unaffordable.
We can't pay it any longer. |
| 00:56:13 |
00:56:17 |
So if you want to continue to have
a social model, |
| 00:56:17 |
00:56:21 |
which I'm willing to protect,
you need economic sustainability |
| 00:56:21 |
00:56:23 |
and that is the core issue. |
| 00:56:24 |
00:56:27 |
So let’s do first things first,
and first things first is growth, |
| 00:56:28 |
00:56:32 |
room for entrepreneurship,
and that is of course the need |
| 00:56:32 |
00:56:34 |
for the World Economic Forum,
that is entrepreneurship, |
| 00:56:35 |
00:56:37 |
that is the beginning of everything. |
| 00:56:37 |
00:56:40 |
Well thanks.
What an interesting discussion, |
| 00:56:40 |
00:56:44 |
I mean, I think it confirms everybody
feels there's a need for really tough |
| 00:56:44 |
00:56:50 |
choices that European politics needs
to recalibrate itself to live within |
| 00:56:50 |
00:56:54 |
the limits of the fiscal ceilings of
the coming years. |
| 00:56:54 |
00:56:57 |
I mean no sacred cows,
we have to be ruthless |
| 00:56:58 |
00:57:03 |
about what we preserve in order to
create space for the new initiatives |
| 00:57:03 |
00:57:05 |
that we want to build up. |
| 00:57:05 |
00:57:09 |
I think climate change was clearly
referred to by a number, |
| 00:57:09 |
00:57:13 |
a green economy as one of the
ways forward that we need |
| 00:57:13 |
00:57:14 |
to do much more in. |
| 00:57:14 |
00:57:17 |
But I think what all the
panelists gave us was a sense of |
| 00:57:17 |
00:57:21 |
that Europe is at a bit of a crossroads
as a way forward which means |
| 00:57:22 |
00:57:25 |
you don’t stop at one currency,
you’ve got to have a higher |
| 00:57:26 |
00:57:31 |
degree of coordination across one fiscal,
one social, you name it perhaps, |
| 00:57:32 |
00:57:35 |
or Europe goes another direction
where it, as the President said, |
| 00:57:36 |
00:57:38 |
gets looser larger and less effective. |
| 00:57:39 |
00:57:45 |
And so this is a challenge and
I think this discussion has reflected |
| 00:57:46 |
00:57:50 |
the debates of the last day and
a half and I think we’re grateful to |
| 00:57:50 |
00:57:52 |
everybody who has participated in them. |
| 00:57:52 |
00:57:56 |
Let me now ask Andre Schneider,
managing director of the Forum |
| 00:57:57 |
00:58:02 |
and its COO to close the meeting for us. |
| 00:58:05 |
00:58:06 |
Thank you very much. |
| 00:58:07 |
00:58:09 |
And I will be very short because
I think the important things |
| 00:58:10 |
00:58:11 |
have been said. |
| 00:58:11 |
00:58:13 |
So distinguished panelists,
ladies and gentlemen, |
| 00:58:13 |
00:58:16 |
distinguished guests,
I can only thank you |
| 00:58:16 |
00:58:20 |
for your engaged participation in this
World Economic Forum on Europe. |
| 00:58:21 |
00:58:24 |
It was very timely,
there were very important discussions, |
| 00:58:24 |
00:58:27 |
and I think if there's one thing
I would like to give you home |
| 00:58:27 |
00:58:30 |
is the theme "Renewed Leadership,
New Vision." |
| 00:58:31 |
00:58:36 |
I think there are still many things
up to do to decide to really go |
| 00:58:37 |
00:58:40 |
and find the right solutions and
we heard many of the directions |
| 00:58:40 |
00:58:41 |
which have to be taken. |
| 00:58:42 |
00:58:46 |
But I think I would like to...
and saying even if I agree |
| 00:58:47 |
00:58:50 |
we need to have actions after discussion
but discussions are at the fundament |
| 00:58:50 |
00:58:55 |
of actions so I want to invite you
all to join us again in one year |
| 00:58:56 |
00:58:59 |
at the next World Economic Forum
on Europe and Central Asia |
| 00:58:59 |
00:59:04 |
which we will be holding in Vienna
from the 8th to 9th of June |
| 00:59:05 |
00:59:09 |
to actually get together and pursue
this discussion but also use this |
| 00:59:09 |
00:59:15 |
now to look also further to central
and eastern Europe, central Asia, |
| 00:59:15 |
00:59:17 |
to Caucus and the Black Sea Region. |
| 00:59:18 |
00:59:21 |
So thank you very much to everyone
and I'm looking forward to |
| 00:59:22 |
00:59:23 |
see you next year in Vienna. |
| 00:59:24 |
00:59:29 |
Andre, if I may, just before we -
could we just say a special word |
| 00:59:29 |
00:59:32 |
of thanks to the Crown Prince who’s
with us this morning as being such |
| 00:59:33 |
00:59:37 |
a force in hosting - well getting this
meeting organized and in supporting it |
| 00:59:38 |
00:59:40 |
and as always,
you're so discreet about it |
| 00:59:41 |
00:59:44 |
that I'm not sure everybody here
recognizes the role you’ve played, |
| 00:59:45 |
00:59:47 |
Prince Philip, in this, and thank you. |
| 00:59:50 |
00:59:51 |
Start of audio loop [59:55] |
| 00:59:55 |
00:59:57 |
going on and in the world. |
| 00:59:57 |
01:00:02 |
So why for me we in our country
try to be critical not only |
| 01:00:03 |
01:00:05 |
about ourselves but also what
we can do, |
| 01:00:05 |
01:00:10 |
how we discuss the projects in Europe,
why we are so enough positively |
| 01:00:11 |
01:00:12 |
critical towards 2020. |
| 01:00:12 |
01:00:17 |
We don’t want this document or this
project or this idea to fail before |
| 01:00:18 |
01:00:23 |
it works and to fail as it was with
other strategies as Lisbon, for example. |
| 01:00:24 |
01:00:31 |
Why in the council together,
most of us, we are uncomfortably, |
| 01:00:31 |
01:00:33 |
for some countries questioning a
lot of questions |
| 01:00:34 |
01:00:39 |
and giving a lot of problems but
we would like any strategy workable, |
| 01:00:39 |
01:00:41 |
effective, and resultative. |
| 01:00:41 |
01:00:47 |
Why all feeling around the room
and around the conference is |
| 01:00:47 |
01:00:51 |
not only about just one other paper,
one other idea, |
| 01:00:52 |
01:00:56 |
it’s about how long after the crisis
started really |
| 01:00:56 |
01:01:01 |
we started to feel in 2007 already,
we’re still talking about necessity, |
| 01:01:01 |
01:01:07 |
of coordinate, about necessity to
manage joint problems together |
| 01:01:07 |
01:01:11 |
and still working separately,
Europe included. |
| 01:01:12 |
01:01:16 |
So I don’t know long the world
will be only talking, |
| 01:01:16 |
01:01:21 |
probably after another broke or
problem or some kind of difficulty, |
| 01:01:22 |
01:01:26 |
large difficulty, Europe including,
not only Europe but Eurozone, |
| 01:01:26 |
01:01:31 |
is now on the edge of facing another
trouble and how fast it will react |
| 01:01:31 |
01:01:36 |
as it did on Sunday not only
politically but really how fast |
| 01:01:37 |
01:01:40 |
the measures will be introduced
and agreements will be reached |
| 01:01:41 |
01:01:46 |
really not just by political correct
language that will result Eurozone |
| 01:01:47 |
01:01:48 |
will manage or not. |
| 01:01:48 |
01:01:53 |
And here we had already,
and it is very right, a lot of countries, |
| 01:01:53 |
01:01:58 |
16 now, do have one currency
but do not have at all one fiscal policy. |
| 01:01:59 |
01:02:04 |
We do have Central Bank but we do
not have really single monetary policy. |
| 01:02:05 |
01:02:07 |
Is it possible at all? |
| 01:02:08 |
01:02:12 |
You can ask any academic economist
and probably he will argue |
| 01:02:12 |
01:02:14 |
"No, practically it’s very difficult." |
| 01:02:14 |
01:02:18 |
That means the stability pact was
created to at least to try |
| 01:02:19 |
01:02:21 |
to coordinate fiscal policies. |
| 01:02:21 |
01:02:24 |
What we did with it exactly before
the crisis in 2005? |
| 01:02:25 |
01:02:31 |
We just laundered it out, loosened it, and
it’s not helpful at all in this environment. |
| 01:02:31 |
01:02:36 |
So if our economic policies will go
together with economic cycle |
| 01:02:37 |
01:02:41 |
and our election cycles,
of course will be very difficult |
| 01:02:41 |
01:02:45 |
for all of us to agree because every year,
in each country or in Europe, |
| 01:02:45 |
01:02:47 |
we have elections after elections |
| 01:02:48 |
01:02:53 |
and if we forget that economics
have their own cycle, |
| 01:02:53 |
01:02:57 |
not necessarily depending on
political cycle, |
| 01:02:58 |
01:03:00 |
we will be failing again. |
| 01:03:00 |
01:03:08 |
So why I just want to finalize
saying that we need to clearly agree |
| 01:03:08 |
01:03:13 |
what kind of Europe we want,
how deep integration we want, |
| 01:03:13 |
01:03:18 |
and in what areas we want to agree,
otherwise we will be only |
| 01:03:19 |
01:03:23 |
discussion larger, with enlargement,
looser with enlargement, |
| 01:03:23 |
01:03:29 |
less decisive with enlargement,
and not resultative with enlargement. |
| 01:03:29 |
01:03:34 |
So if we will understand these problems
in the future hopefully |
| 01:03:34 |
01:03:36 |
we will be able to avoid them. |
| 01:03:37 |
01:03:39 |
Thanks very much Madame President.
Minister, last word. |
| 01:03:40 |
01:03:44 |
Yes when I listen to my three
colleagues it reminds me of the saying |
| 01:03:44 |
01:03:47 |
that the European Union is very
good at telling member states, |
| 01:03:48 |
01:03:51 |
candidate member states, what they
should do but is less well in |
| 01:03:51 |
01:03:54 |
reforming itself so maybe that could
be a lesson for us. |
| 01:03:55 |
01:03:59 |
Secondly, I'm not pessimistic, not at all.
If Greek socialists can reform, |
| 01:04:00 |
01:04:03 |
everybody can, yes we can. |
| 01:04:04 |
01:04:07 |
But the point that the gentlema
n there made is quite clear. |
| 01:04:08 |
01:04:11 |
He said "Okay, the Euro crisis was
a wakeup call, |
| 01:04:12 |
01:04:16 |
the question is how do we stay awake?
How do we stay awake?" |
| 01:04:16 |
01:04:21 |
And then I think the only answer is,
of course, ambition, targets, etc. |
| 01:04:22 |
01:04:26 |
You need an instance,
an institution that is willing to look at it. |
| 01:04:26 |
01:04:30 |
And I believe, I'm a Belgian,
sorry to say so, that Europe there, |
| 01:04:30 |
01:04:35 |
European Commission and European
institutions have unique opportunity, |
| 01:04:35 |
01:04:38 |
that is, to show their teeth. |
| 01:04:38 |
01:04:41 |
And that means that respecting the
Growth and Stability Pact, |
| 01:04:42 |
01:04:46 |
respecting the targets EU 2020 are
enlarged towards growth, respecting, |
| 01:04:47 |
01:04:51 |
real respecting, that is,
this is really the core essence |
| 01:04:51 |
01:04:55 |
because the issue, I mean,
there are huge member states of |
| 01:04:56 |
01:05:00 |
so-called old Europe that never
respected the Growth |
| 01:05:00 |
01:05:04 |
and Stability Pact if there is
no respect for targets. |
| 01:05:04 |
01:05:09 |
How do you want that once we
can have a very good continent? |
| 01:05:09 |
01:05:14 |
I listened to all the questions.
I won't respond to them but I think |
| 01:05:14 |
01:05:18 |
really the lady of Oxfam and others,
I'm a free market liberal |
| 01:05:20 |
01:05:22 |
and I'm very proud of the social
system that we have |
| 01:05:23 |
01:05:27 |
but the big question today is if
we want to continue to have |
| 01:05:27 |
01:05:31 |
a social model then it’s
understandable that today, |
| 01:05:32 |
01:05:37 |
in my country, when a company
like Opal, GM, and Antrop closes |
| 01:05:38 |
01:05:43 |
that people at the age of 52 can
say "I go on a pre-pension scheme." |
| 01:05:44 |
01:05:47 |
This is unaffordable.
We can't pay it any longer. |
| 01:05:48 |
01:05:50 |
So if you want to continue to
have a social model, |
| 01:05:51 |
01:05:55 |
which I'm willing to protect,
you need economic sustainability |
| 01:05:56 |
01:05:57 |
and that is the core issue. |
| 01:05:58 |
01:06:01 |
So let’s do first things first,
and first things first is growth, |
| 01:06:02 |
01:06:06 |
room for entrepreneurship,
and that is of course the need |
| 01:06:06 |
01:06:09 |
for the World Economic Forum,
that is entrepreneurship, t |
| 01:06:09 |
01:06:11 |
hat is the beginning of everything. |
| 01:06:11 |
01:06:12 |
Well thanks. |
| 01:06:13 |
01:06:16 |
What an interesting discussion,
I mean, I think it confirms everybody |
| 01:06:17 |
01:06:21 |
feels there's a need for really tough
choices that European politics |
| 01:06:21 |
01:06:26 |
needs to recalibrate itself to live
within the limits of the fiscal |
| 01:06:26 |
01:06:28 |
ceilings of the coming years. |
| 01:06:29 |
01:06:32 |
I mean no sacred cows,
we have to be ruthless |
| 01:06:32 |
01:06:36 |
about what we preserve in
order to create space |
| 01:06:36 |
01:06:39 |
for the new initiatives that
we want to build up. |
| 01:06:39 |
01:06:43 |
I think climate change was clearly
referred to by a number, |
| 01:06:43 |
01:06:48 |
a green economy as one of the ways
forward that we need to do much more in. |
| 01:06:48 |
01:06:51 |
But I think what all the panelists
gave us was a sense of that |
| 01:06:52 |
01:06:55 |
Europe is at a bit of a crossroads
as a way forward which means |
| 01:06:56 |
01:07:00 |
you don’t stop at one currency,
you’ve got to have a higher degree |
| 01:07:00 |
01:07:06 |
of coordination across one fiscal,
one social, you name it perhaps, |
| 01:07:06 |
01:07:10 |
or Europe goes another direction
where it, as the President said, |
| 01:07:10 |
01:07:13 |
gets looser larger and less effective. |
| 01:07:14 |
01:07:19 |
And so this is a challenge and I
think this discussion has reflected |
| 01:07:20 |
01:07:24 |
the debates of the last day and a
half and I think we’re grateful |
| 01:07:24 |
01:07:26 |
to everybody who has participated in them. |
| 01:07:26 |
01:07:31 |
Let me now ask Andre Schneider,
managing director of the Forum |
| 01:07:31 |
01:07:35 |
and its COO to close the meeting for us. |
| 01:07:40 |
01:07:40 |
Thank you very much. |
| 01:07:41 |
01:07:43 |
And I will be very short because
I think the important things |
| 01:07:43 |
01:07:44 |
have been said. |
| 01:07:45 |
01:07:47 |
So distinguished panelists,
ladies and gentlemen, |
| 01:07:47 |
01:07:51 |
distinguished guests,
I can only thank you for your |
| 01:07:51 |
01:07:54 |
engaged participation in this
World Economic Forum on Europe. |
| 01:07:55 |
01:07:58 |
It was very timely,
there were very important discussions, |
| 01:07:58 |
01:08:01 |
and I think if there's one thing I
would like to give you home |
| 01:08:01 |
01:08:04 |
is the theme "Renewed Leadership,
New Vision." |
| 01:08:04 |
01:08:10 |
I think there are still many things
up to do to decide to really go |
| 01:08:10 |
01:08:13 |
and find the right solutions and
we heard many of the directions |
| 01:08:13 |
01:08:15 |
which have to be taken. |
| 01:08:15 |
01:08:21 |
But I think I would like to...
and saying even if I agree we need |
| 01:08:21 |
01:08:24 |
to have actions after discussion
but discussions are at the fundament |
| 01:08:24 |
01:08:29 |
of actions so I want to invite you all
to join us again in one year |
| 01:08:30 |
01:08:33 |
at the next World Economic Forum
on Europe and Central Asia |
| 01:08:33 |
01:08:39 |
which we will be holding in Vienna
from the 8th to 9th of June to actually |
| 01:08:39 |
01:08:43 |
get together and pursue this
discussion but also use this now |
| 01:08:44 |
01:08:49 |
to look also further to central
and eastern Europe, central Asia, |
| 01:08:49 |
01:08:52 |
to Caucus and the Black Sea Region. |
| 01:08:52 |
01:08:55 |
So thank you very much to everyone
and I'm looking forward |
| 01:08:55 |
01:08:57 |
to see you next year in Vienna. |
| 01:08:58 |
01:09:03 |
Andre, if I may, just before we -
could we just say a special word |
| 01:09:03 |
01:09:06 |
of thanks to the Crown Prince who’s
with us this morning as being such |
| 01:09:07 |
01:09:10 |
a force in hosting - well getting
this meeting organized and in |
| 01:09:11 |
01:09:14 |
supporting it and as always,
you're so discreet about it |
| 01:09:14 |
01:09:18 |
that I'm not sure everybody here
recognizes the role you’ve played, |
| 01:09:19 |
01:09:21 |
Prince Philip, in this, and thank you. |
